East-Central New York Weather

Today will be breezy but dry. Temperatures will be a bit below average, but all in all not too bad. Tomorrow will see the warming trend continue. There could be... a few isolated showers across southern and southwest Pennsylvania Sunday morning with more in the way of widespread steady rain coming in during the evening. A major storm is going to come together and quickly develop. I’ve been talking about the late Sunday into early Tuesday morning including the severe aspect of it for a few days. This looks to be a perfect setup for a significant severe weather outbreak from Texas across the Gulf States to the Southeast Coast. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has a large area of Moderate and Enhanced Risk for most of the Gulf States for tomorrow. With a slight Risk into the Carolinas and Virginia, The Marginal Risk is as far north as Maryland, Delaware and southern Pennsylvania. I do expect to see the SPC expand the risk area. They even could upgrade parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama to a High Risk. Those in the Deep South will see damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. For Monday, the SPC has a Slight Risk for severe weather all the way from southern Maryland and Delaware to northern Florida; the Marginal Risk covers the rest of Maryland and Delaware into southern Pennsylvania, again the is a good chance the SPC could expand these risk areas farther north and east. Sunday afternoon the strong area of low pressure will move into the Midwest and then the Lower Great Lakes. As the storm rapidly strengthens winds will become an increasing issue for the Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Later Sunday and Monday, across southern parts of our region wind gust of 30-50 mph will be possible. But higher wind gust will be possible for areas around any severe thunderstorms. Those across New York State and New England could see wind gust of 40 to 60 mph with gust of 70+ mph possible across northern and western New York State (especially during Monday afternoon). Sunday evening into Sunday night Pennsylvania Maryland and Delaware will see the rain move in, heavy at times. The rain will continue to advance north and east during the night into Monday. Rain is also going to be a big component, Southern and Central parts of our region will see widespread rain amounts of 1-2 inches, with isolated rain amounts of 4 inches possible. Thunderstorms will be around as well, especially the farther south you go. Monday night into Tuesday will see weather conditions improve as the storm moves farther into Canada. But as colder air pours into the region snow will be possible across parts of New York State and northern into central New England.

Nothing has really changed from what I posted earlier. A weak cold front will move in from west to east. This will bring rain showers overnight into tomorrow. T...here could be a few higher elevation snow showers. This weekend into next week is featuring a warming trend. I did want to make a quick (heads-up) post about the 2nd half of next week. Wednesday we will see low pressure and a strong cold front approaching our region out of the Great Lakes. The air behind the front is going to be significantly colder than we’ve been seeing of late. Thursday into the Weekend will feel very winter like. As I said the other day, thunderstorms will be possible across Southern New York State, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware, New Jersey, including the I-95 corridor. At least some of these storms could be on the strong/severe side. With the colder temperatures. A change from rain to a mix is quite possible. How fast the system rolls through will be a major factor on how far south the snow/mix gets. A slower moving storm would increase the odds of some snow making it into southern New York State and Pennsylvania. But there is a decent chance for some accumulating snow across parts of northern New York State and northern New England, especially in the higher elevations. I can’t rule out lake effect snow/rain downwind of Erie and Ontario for Friday into Saturday.

The ocean storm is still rotating showers back into our region with gusty winds in parts of eastern New York State, Mid Atlantic, and New England. Improving co...nditions this weekend, as a weak area of high pressure moves into the region. But there will be enough atmospheric moisture around to leave clouds with breaks of sunshine. Skies should clear somewhat during the day ahead of our next system. A weak cold front moves into the region from the west late Saturday night. This will bring rain into our western areas like Buffalo and Pittsburgh, light more in the way of widespread rain showers late Saturday night into Sunday morning. This trough will be weakening as it moves east; so, the farther east you are the less in the way of rain you will see. The weak trough will bring hit and miss showers into eastern New York State and western New England later Sunday afternoon/evening. East New England may see a few showers Sunday night. In spite of the wet weather, there will be a warming trend over the weekend into early next week. Next week will see the active pattern continue. Tuesday could see thunderstorms across Pennsylvania, into the northern Mid Atlantic, as a backdoor cold front moves in from the north, some of these could be on the strong side. Midweek to the end of week, will see low pressure move into the region. Some of us, could be seeing some snow Thursday and Friday as there is a chance for significant cold sitting up in the region late next week. .

The coastal storm that moved offshore yesterday has merged with the upper level low. It is now moving north and west (retrograde). Bringing rain to parts of Mai...ne, New Hampshire, and Vermont. Here is a look at current satellite and radar. It shows the rain is starting to make its way into eastern Massachusetts and Northeast New York State. High elevation mix is occurring across parts of New Hampshire and Vermont,. Winds will become increasingly gusty this afternoon into tonight. Gale, Storm Warnings, and Small Craft Advisories are up for the coastal waters from Maine to South Carolina. Wind Advisories are also up, winds along the Coast will gust 35 mph to 60 mph, inland wind gust of 15 mph to 35 mph. Tonight, into tomorrow the system will continue to rotate through the region. Bringing scattered rain as far as Central New York, Central Pennsylvania, and the northern Mid Atlantic. New York City, Philadelphia, Scranton, and Atlantic City will run the risk for some rain, but I don’t think it will be heavy. Areas south and west of there will likely only see clouds, but should remain dry. Rain amounts of 1-2 inches can be expected for Southeast and East New England. General amounts west and south of these areas will see amounts of 0.10 to 1 inch the farther west you go the lower your amounts will be. There is a risk for minor coastal flooding along the New England Sea Coast, but those Offshore Islands are at a greater risk for flooding. The storm will pull south and east tomorrow afternoon into Friday night, taking the rain with it west to east. A storm in the Upper Plains will weaken as it moves East. Saturday is looking generally dry. With a chance for some rain showers on Sunday, rain will be scattered and not everyone will see it. After that, our next chance for rain will be later Tuesday into Wednesday.

After a very long winter of planning, the NEW East-Central New York Weather is finally here! I am pleased to announce that Tyler May, a previous member of Weather 16, has just joined our team of lead forecasters. We will begin posting information about current, and future weather events, including the current tornado season in Tornado Alley and the upcoming Hurricane Season.