Fagan Associates

What will NY's legalization of recreational marijuana mean for the state's economy? Aaron shares his thoughts with River Morning Show host Randy McCarten:

'Buy and Hold' investing is dead. In fact, Dennis and Aaron believe it never really existed. If B&H is your current strategy this is a must-read: bit.ly/31y2sUA

MONDAY MORNING MUSINGS The Ever Given tanker, for a week wedged within the Suez Canal after winds blew it sideways, is 13-hundred feet long. The blockage has caused many shippers to consider an alternate route (around the Southern tip of Africa), adding two weeks to their schedule. The canal connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. It's a passageway/shortcut for $9.6 billion of goods daily. The blocked ship (which is finally on the move this morning) is costing an estimat...ed $400 million/hour. The rotation from growth to value has continued in earnest, as both the Federal Reserve and officials from the Biden Administration have done little to quell fears in the bond market. That said, bonds did rally a bit last week as the rollout of the COVID vaccine in the European Union has stumbled and cases here in the United States have ticked up a bit. Unlike in 2020, what's working thus far this year are industries tied to the post-COVID/reopening economy, while what's gone cold are the stay-at-home stocks. We believe that to invest too heavily in either side may compromise your portfolio over the next several quarters. Cyclical upward inflationary pressures from the stimulus will ultimately be tempered by the structural disinflationary pressures from technological advances. We do not believe a bout with secular inflation (a la the late 1970s) is upon us.

The Fagan Financial Report begins NOW! www.iheart.com/live/news-radio-810-wgy-1413

Got a question this week wondering if we're still offering FREE, no obligation initial consultations. And the answer, of course is YES! If you or someone you know is interested in investing to accumulate wealth and establish a comfortable retirement let's meet. Together we'll review your current financial situation and discuss your objectives both short and long-term. Call us: 518-279-1044 to make an appointment. We look forward to helping you safely and successfully reach your goals.

The first episode of 2021 of THE BEST financial podcast on the planet is now available On Demand. Listen to Dennis and Aaron NOW: ihr.fm/396WX2u

As we reflect upon 2020, we do so with a great degree of mixed emotions. Despite the enormous impact on the health and financial well-being of many of us, the pandemic has hopefully engendered a greater respect for those less fortunate, along with a keen appreciation for our first responders, service workers, family members, friends and the time we all spend together. With that in mind, we wish you a warm, happy Holiday Season filled with peace and togetherness! Our offices will be closed Thursday, December 24th and Friday, December 25th. We will reopen for business Monday, December 28th.

MONDAY MARKET MUSINGS As the first trading week of the new year gets underway, here's some important historical data to consider: The Dow rose 7.25% in 2020 while the S&P 500 rose 16.26%. This marks the Dow’s worst relative performance to the S&P 500 since 1998, a year in which the Dow rose 16.10% while the 500 advanced 26.67%. It's important to note the Dow went on to outperform the S&P the following four years 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002.... The NASDAQ Composite climbed 43.64% during 2020, its best year since 2009 when it rose 43.89%. The following year the NASDAQ rose 16.91%, which outpaced the indexes. The S&P 500 climbed 14.87% over the final two months of 2020. This marked the 6th time since World War II that the S&P rose double-digits in November/December. Statistically, this is quite bullish for the subsequent year. The five previous times this late year rise occurred the S&P 500 went on to post double-digit gains the following year (Source LPL Research). Soybean futures have risen to highest level since June 2014 on what experts say is the return of tighter supplies and unfavorable weather forecasts. We believe both soft (agricultural) and industrial commodities may be poised for further gains in 2021.

What will the new COVID Relief package mean for you? Aaron discusses that with Randy on the River Morning Show. Check it out: fb.watch/2x-fug6xAS

Begin 2021 in style! Listen to the first Fagan Financial Report of the new year starting at 10AM: 810am/103.1fm WGY and streaming live at www.wgy.com.

Ho Ho Ho, who wouldn't go Ho Ho Ho, who wouldn't go To Faganasset.com/contact just click, click, click Set up a free consultation quick, quick, quick

As the clock continues to wind down on 2020 (and it can't go fast enough) we want to wish you a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year.

MONDAY MARKET MUSINGS If history is any guide expect at least a short-term rotation (period of underperformance) from the winners of 2020 to the losers. According to data research dating back to 1926 (by Mark Hulbert of HulbertRatings.com), the worst performing stocks of the prior year outperform during January of the following year. We predict this will be the case again in 2021, although it may be somewhat muted this time as the Russell 2000 (which had been the worst perfor...mer) has been outpacing the broader averages as represented by the S&P 500 since June 30 by a margin of 36.67% to 19.65%. Tesla has officially joined the S&P 500. The market capitalization weighted index will likely become more volatile due to this addition. As an aside, Tesla’s market cap exceeds the other nine largest automakers combined. Is this a strong indicator of a market bubble? This certainly is: When we start receiving texts and emails on Friday nights regarding the financial markets, consider yourself in a bubble. To those thrill-seeking investors BEWARE! These periods seldom end well. At Fagan Associates, we avoid actively participating in bubble market exuberance. We prefer, instead, the relative predictability of Growth At A Reasonable Price (GARP).

HAPPY NEW YEAR'S EVE It's the final trading day of 2020. For the year, the Dow is up 6%, S&P 500 up 15%, NASDAQ up 43%! It was an unprecedented 12-months: flash recession (due to COVID-19), market rebound to record highs, mass influx of new investors, SPAC phenomenon... ... Clearly, no one knows what 2021 will bring but the key to a successful year for investors is being prepared for anything that can happen. If you're not sure your portfolio is where it needs to be we're here to help.

Nothing better than an early Christmas present! Dennis and Aaron are on their way with a special holiday edition of the Fagan Financial Report. And you can listen whether you've been naughty or nice this year (they know you've been nice!). 10am -11am 810AM/103.1FM wgy and streaming live at wgy.com.