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The first BOE meeting for the year is scheduled for Thursday and is set to be a very interesting event as the bank will finally reveal its long-awaited study on the impact of negative interest rates. Recently we’ve taking a bullish bias on the GBP as there has been more positive drivers than negative ones. The first positive took place on the 12th of January after Governor Bailey pushed back against negative interest rates, which saw the markets pushing back their expectation...s for the bank taking rates to negative territory later this year. After that we’ve also seen a remarkable reduction in new virus cases across the UK as the extended lockdown measures have started to do their job. We’ve also had a huge cloud of uncertainty removed after the EU and the UK agreed on a trade deal at the end of the last year. Arguably, one of the most positive developments has been the UK’s vaccination program, which is currently well ahead of the EU and US by getting the population towards herd immunity. There is still a long way to go of course but a good start, nonetheless. Thus, we believe there are more positives for the GBP right now, and this week’s upcoming BOE meeting might just be the cherry on top of the cake to seal the deal for more GBP strength to come. #GBP #FUNDAMENTAL

Sell USD/JPY - TD trade of the week. TD recommends selling USD/JPY with a target of 103.00 and a stop at 106.00. The Spot is at 104.85 "Mobility has slowed in the US and Asian but not at the European pace in the past two weeks. Our mapping of the global mobility data shows the USD trading at a 2.15% discount, which becomes problematic if election uncertainty mounts," TD notes.... "As a result, we sell USD/JPY as our Trade of the Week, anticipating more election tricks than treats."

EUR/USD: On The Defensive Ahead Of A Volatile Week; What's Next? - Credit Agricole Credit Agricole CIB Research discusses the EUR/USD outlook into next week's US elections. "We assume that postelection uncertainty in the US would drag on for a while longer after Election Day, with investors maintaining their defensive stance across the board. This could help the USD and weigh on the EUR," CACIB notes. ... "That said, evidence of a decisive Democratic victory next week could weigh on the USD and propel EUR/USD back to the highs of its recent 1.17-1.1950 trading range. Equally, evidence that the status quo may be preserved eg, surprise re-election of President Trump and Republican control of the Senate could push EUR/USD closer to its recent lows around 1.1600," CACIB adds.

GBP: Cable Still A Sell Above 1.30; EUR/GBP Likely Heading Towards 0.92 N-Term - Credit Suisse Credit Suisse likes selling GBP against the USD and the EUR in the near-term. "We still see no reason to change our view that EURGBP should gravitate to 0.9200 while Brexit talks proceed, with GBPUSD still a sell above 1.3000. Given the government’s general approach to emotive talks, the odds of talks being concluded in a manner that rules out more apprehension and misunderstandings... before a conclusion seem slim still," CS notes. "We note that the EU parliament, which would need to vote through any agreed deal, does not next month till 23-26 Nov, suggesting that the level of urgency to reach a conclusion will stay relatively low for some weeks to come," CS adds.

GBP/USD: Brexit A Sideshow For Building COVID Risks; Staying Short - MUFG MUFG Research maintains a bearish bias on GBP/USD, expressing that via holding a short position targeting a move towards 1.2630. "The rates market is slowly pricing in a greater chance of negative rates in 2021. By the August 2021 MPC meeting, OIS market pricing implies a 90% probability of Bank Rate falling to -0.10%. First to come is likely to be more QE highlighted yesterday in comments by Gertjan Vl...ieghe that the outlook for monetary policy was skewed towards adding further stimulus. Indeed, more QE in November is looking likely now," MUFG notes. "In many ways, Brexit is somewhat of a side-show to the building risks as COVID spreads that clearly will increasingly undermine GBP performance. We continue to see downside risks, reflected in our FX trade idea from last Friday," MUFG adds.

GBP/USD: Cable's Stable Floor Around 1.28 But Uncertainty Is Acute - TD TD Research discusses GBP outlook and sees GBP/USD making a stable floor around 1.28 in the near-term. "A deal remains our baseline scenario. A No-Deal outcome is still possible, however. With the 31 December deadline approaching, chances of an accident have likely risen, though sit around 20%." TD notes. ... "Brexit remains a major risk, but we now see this more in tactical than strategic terms. The range of outcomes has narrowed and the Deal on the table represents a very hard Brexit...At current levels, most of Brexit’s damage may already be priced, but the situation remains highly fluid, and uncertainty is acute," TD adds.